Tashi goes back to the mobile browser and pulls up some websites and analyses.

"In this long-term Climate Risk Index (CRI) which identified countries those are the most affected by extreme weather events from 2000-2019, three countries from South Asia were among the top 10 most affected – Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nepal"

Tashi continues talking.

"Look at this map. The darker the shade of the countries, the more affected they are by extreme weather events. Look at South Asia."

Image source: (Eckstein, Künzel, & Schäfer, 2021)

"These are just some examples, but I think you get the point – climate change is triggering extreme weather events. More importantly, the climate risks will continue to intensify. Take a look at this image that shows the global surface temperature change – historical and projections based on different scenarios. For example, SSP2-4.5 is a ‘middle of the road scenario’. In this scenario, CO2 emissions hover around current levels before beginning to decline by mid-century. Socioeconomic factors follow their historical trends, with no significant change. Progress toward sustainability is slow, with disparate development and income growth. Under this scenario, temperatures rise by 2.7°C by the end of the century."

Image source: (H.-O. Pörtner, 2022)

With enthusiasm in his voice, Tashi continues his explanation, incorporating examples to further illustrate his point.

"Keep in mind that this trend is a global average. While the global average helps to communicate the overall trend, region-specific scenarios can be higher or lower. The local situation can be much worse."

"I certainly did not understand the severity of climate risks. However, this seems more to me a risk if you are living in an area that is prone to natural disasters. Lalalistan also has a lot of rivers. During monsoons, there are regions where the river floods damage farmland and destroy infrastructure and adversely impact the people. Probably these floods will intensify every year. But in Lalapur, the capital of Lalalistan, where no major river basin flows – we only have river streams – and the valley is shielded by hills on all sides, we can’t expect climate risks there, right?"

"You may think that you are safe and won’t be affected but remember the hazard chart I showed you earlier – the climatic risks affect both urban and rural areas and eventually will affect you and your father’s business. Take a look at this image here, you can see how the global warming is negatively impacting nature and people."

Image source: (Pörtner, 2022)

"Just to give you an example, let's walk through one simple scenario of one of your father’s business - the sales of diesel water pumps. As river floods intensify, they destroy crops and flood farms with water. This results in an income loss for farmers. With their crops destroyed and with the loss of income, the sales of water pumps will decline which means it is a potential loss to your father’s business. This loss eventually will limit business expansion.”

Tashi realizes the need to elaborate further and presents a clearer perspective.

"Let’s take an example of climate risk affecting your father’s business operations. His store is located in Lalapur, an urban capital, where many other businesses operate. Going back to the hazard chart, the urban flood risks are high. If unprecedented intense rainfall overwhelms the drainage system, the urban flood will cause infrastructure damage, limiting people's movement. The business will struggle to operate smoothly as the floods may damage equipment in your father’s warehouse, workers may not be able to commute and deliveries and the supply chain will also be impacted. Also, there will be a loss of potential customers. All these will accumulate into business losses. Do you see the chain of impact?"

Lalima (nodding as she internalised Tashi’s explanation).

"Yes, I can see the connection now. There are a lot of small businesses operating in Lalapur. Climate risks can greatly impact their business operations."

Learn more about the different projection scenarios: here.